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It simply cannot go on. The logic defies sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Defying Expectations

Aston Villa entered Saturday's Premier League encounter at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of eleven consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed highly unlikely, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added several more. But, Chelsea have shown vulnerability with a lead, especially at home, while Villa now possess a baffling knack of snatching away victories after falling behind.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post following his first effort was blocked by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he nodded in the decisive goal with a precise header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. The forward might believe some fortune was due, and it's undeniable the first goal had a significant element of luck. At the moment, however, fortune is smiling on Villa.

The Statistics Behind an Unlikely Run

The last nine of these 11 straight wins were by a single goal. They have managed a clean sheet in just one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been better in just six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula seems unsustainable, yet observers have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their results will finally match their displays or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.

This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everybody's been stating that for weeks and Villa continue winning.

A Defining Trait: Belief

Fighting back is not just a feature of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has won more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; Eighteen of those were secured this term, fifty percent more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted self-belief that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven very adept at influencing games through his substitutions.

The Emery Effect

While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were the dominant force from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple change. Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with limited service. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind created issues. Amadou Onana and Sancho also entered, bolstering the center and providing the flank presence they had eschewed earlier.

Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's zero before the substitutions; afterwards, Villa created 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the final whistle, Villa were in control and could have won more comfortably. Once again, opposing manager Enzo Maresca seemed unable to react as the game slipped away; the sense remains that he is more proficient at implementing a tactical plan with time to prepare than making adjustments in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a happy habit of individuals producing moments of sensational quality to turn games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish home has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was the winger who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. Watkins swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of defenders like Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's not always the whole side playing brilliantly, but enough players within it delivering to secure the victories.

What Comes Next?

Can they maintain this run? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season nears its midway point, they must be viewed as in the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away game at Arsenal will be a significant examination of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal on the first weekend of December, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

Arsenal have assembled their own sequence of single-goal victories, winning three in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both sides – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their title credentials.