From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than international law.”