Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.